Truthiness Illustrated

Mark Purdy posted the full transcript of his interview with Jed York yesterday. It makes for very interesting reading.

There is one point in particular that caught my eye. Near the end of the interview, Mr. York made the following comment:

"... with the city's investment of $160 million, not only are they seeing revenue that's occurring from a 49ers game, they're also seeing direct revenue from the ancillary events, the 14 to 20 major events that can happen here. So the city of Santa Clara can see anywhere from $2 million to $10 million a year in net income going to their general fund because of the stadium being here."

Assume for the moment that his figures are correct. Is this a "good investment"?

• $2 million per year over the 30 year life of the stadium would not even repay $160 million.
• $10 million per year is equivalent to the 49ers Corp. making payments on a 30 year mortgage at 4.75%.
  

The really sad news is that the city's consultants and the 49ers' own consultants have yet to show the public how the general fund could net anywhere near $2 million per year. The Keyser Marsten report shows $700,000 per year. (Referenced below.)

Moreover, the initial subsidy from the city is $222 million -- $160 million cash plus $62 million for a new garage and moving the power substation. (Referenced below.)

As an MBA with experience in the finance industry, Mr. York surely realizes what a bad investment this would be.



References:
See the last page of the Keyser Marsten report at the following location:
http://ci.santa-clara.ca.us/pdf/collateral/49ers-20070605-Agenda-Report-Eval-49ers-Economic-and-Fiscal-Benefits-Study.pdf

For reference, see page 15 of the report under agenda item 5F on the July 17th meeting summary at:
http://cityclerkdatabase.ci.santa-clara.ca.us/wx/pubhtml/pubhtml/3010.html#July-17-07Regular

One wild ride

Yesterday I wrote that the City Council should not spend any more money on studying the San Francisco 49ers' stadium subsidy request until the City had a signed agreement from Cedar Fair.

I didn't really expect the City Council to postpone this request for additional money, but today's press release from Cedar Fair — "Cedar Fair opposes proposed 49ers stadium" — is precisely the reason why the City of Santa Clara should have obtained a signed agreement with Cedar Fair before spending a dime of taxpayer money on studying the proposal.

Cedar Fair's opposition isn't a complete roadblock to the stadium proposal — in its press release, Cedar Fair states its willingness to "consider selling the remainder of its lease and all of its interest and assets to the City or 49ers for fair market value" — but its opposition completely changes the circumstances of the proposal. If the City Council still wants to move forward with this proposal, it needs to study the feasibility in light of these new conditions.

The San Francisco 49ers, however, were quick to provide an alternative plan — they'll just buy the theme park.

A couple of problems with this new proposal.

First, as Santa Clara's Deputy City Manager Carol McCarthy told the San Jose Mercury News "Any sale requires the city's approval and is contingent on having a class A theme-park operator . . . with proven financial ability to operate it."

So, to use a baseball metaphor, strike one.

Second, the San Francisco 49ers have asked the city for $222,000,000 in public assets plus 15 acres of land to build the stadium. If they don't have the money to build their own stadium, how can they afford a theme park? And if we the taxpayers are subsidizing their place of business, is our subsidy helping them to acquire more business assets? Should public money be used to help a wealthy team owner buy even more private assets?

Strike two.

Finally, in many of their presentations to city residents, the 49ers have tried to claim that they want the City to operate the stadium because they "are in the football business, not the stadium business." (My previous responses to that claim have been "our city isn't in the stadium business either" and "that's a little like Intel saying its not in the office building business." Intel certainly isn't in the office building business, but it didn't use that argument to try and convince the city to build an office for them.)

But if the 49ers don't want to be in the stadium business, why on earth are they considering a leap into the theme park business? Shouldn't they stick a little closer to their core competencies?

I'll call that strike three.

Is this latest theme park idea just a last-minute desperation strategy? Are the 49ers merely clinging to any shred of hope that this proposal is viable? Do the San Francisco 49ers need to keep up the image that the Santa Clara plan is viable in order to put pressure on San Francisco to complete its proposal? Once the San Francisco proposal is in place, will the 49ers still be talking about venturing into the theme park business?

Time will certainly tell, but until then, be sure your seat belt is fastened and keep your arms and legs inside the car at all times.

It looks like it's going to be a wild ride.


UPDATE:

According to Julie Patel's article in the Mercury News today — Niners eye new spot for possible stadium — there may be another option. The proposed stadium site would be moved to an overflow parking on the other side of San Tomas Creek. But if they used this site, the 49ers would need to resubmit all of their site plans and traffic analysis, and the City would have to develop a plan to replace the parking Cedar Fair would be losing.

So this is yet another reason the City Council should have received Great America's approval in writing before spending any money even studying this proposal. As Ms. Patel writes in her article: "Whatever happens, the shifting debate is bound to cost the city of Santa Clara more time and money, on top of the $500,000 approved to research a stadium."

Back to school

It's been almost three months since the City Council last had any public agenda item related to the San Francisco 49ers' request for the City of Santa Clara to contribute $222,000,000 in public funds for a football stadium (although it seems that they have been having plenty of closed-door meetings.)

Tonight, however, the proposal will be back in public session.

At this evening's meeting, the City Council will consider the request to spend an additional $185,000 in public money to continue to study this proposal.

In case you've lost track of the total to date, this new request will bring the total to an even $500,000. And of course that figure doesn't include all of the staff time that has also been spent on this proposal.

I'm certainly in favor of study and research in general, but before continuing to spend any more money studying this proposal, the City Council needs to get back to the Guiding Principles it established for itself back in January.

One of those principles was a requirement that Cedar Fair agree that they will not assert business interference or negative effects from the feasibility studies and that this agreement needed to be in place "prior to pursuing discussions with the 49ers."

The City does not yet have that agreement.

So, the problem with spending money NOW on a feasibility study is that conditions may change by the time Cedar Fair is willing to agree to moving forward with a stadium without any reduction in their payments to the City or any City agency.

Therefore, we shouldn't be spending money on a study now. We should wait until Cedar Fair has agreed in writing to not assert their own business interests. When Cedar Fair does sign such an agreement -- then we can take up the question of whether additional public funds should be spent studying it.

And there's one more issue.

The cost estimates in the San Francisco 49ers' proposal were based on the City Council approving the project in July 2007.

So once we have Cedar Fair's approval, the City Council needs to ask the San Francisco 49ers to submit a revised construction budget.

Once those two pieces are in place, then and only then should we even consider spending more money studying this proposal. Financial conditions can change, and there's no point determining whether or not the July 2007 estimate is feasible, since we are already well past that approval date.

What can you do?:

1. Attend the City Council meeting on TONIGHT at 7pm and speak out! Speakers will probably be limited to 2 minutes each.

2. Call the Santa Clara City Council at

(408) 615-2250

3. Write a Letter to:

Patricia M. Mahan, Mayor
City Hall
1500 Warburton Avenue
Santa Clara, CA 95050

4. Send an email to:

mailto:MayorandCouncil@ci.santa-clara.ca.us?subject=Concerns%20about%20stadium%20proposal

5. Spread the word! Tell your neighbors and friends and encourage them to get involved!

The rich are different from you and me

Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me. They possess and enjoy early, and it does something to them, makes them soft where we are hard, and cynical where we are trustful, in a way that, unless you were born rich, it is very difficult to understand. They think, deep in their hearts, that they are better than we are because we had to discover the compensations and refuges of life for ourselves. Even when they enter deep into our world or sink below us, they still think that they are better than we are. They are different.

F. Scott Fitzgerald, “The Rich Boy,” All the Sad Young Men (1926).

To which I might add, "The rich are greedier than you and me." Consider this:

When Forbes first analyzed ... the value of NFL teams in 1998, the magazine valued the 49ers at $254 million... A rising economic tide of network television contracts and new stadiums has been raising the NFL's boats ever since... Forbes pegs the 49ers' value at $799 million in 2007.

"New stadiums lift NFL teams' value," Mike Swift, SJ Mercury News, 09/20/2007.

That's more than 3X increase in 9 years, or about 13% per year. Try to find that in your neighborhood bank's CD offerings.

Even the stock market didn't do nearly that well in the same time period: not the Dow, not the S&P500, not even the NASDAQ came close to doubling between January 1998 and 2007.

So what would you call this?

greed, n. An excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth.

TheFreeDictionary.com

Commonwealth Club discussion on "The Future of the 49ers"

Two weeks ago, I was invited to be a guest at a Commonwealth Club panel discussion entitled “After Further Review: The Future of the San Francisco 49ers.” The panelists were: Michael Cohen, Director of Base Reuse and Development, City and County of San Francisco; Ann Killion, Sportswriter, San Jose Mercury News; Patricia Mahan, Mayor, Santa Clara; and Carmen Policy, Former President and CEO, San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns. The moderator was Dan Ashley of ABC7 News.

It was a fascinating discussion.

I was most surprised by two issues. First, the San Francisco stadium plan is quite serious and moving ahead quickly. Michael Cohen, who is in charge of the redevelopment efforts at Hunters Point, made it clear that while they were shocked at the Yorks' sudden withdrawal from negotiations last November, they quickly regrouped and developed an aggressive stadium development schedule. They met with the 49ers organization last December to present their new timetable, and to date they have met every one of the benchmarks on that new schedule.

The second surprise was the very strong sentiment expressed by three of the four panelists that the 49ers should stay in San Francisco. While I expected Michael Cohen to be in favor of the site, it was probably Carmen Policy who painted the most vivid picture of the possibilities of the Hunters Point location. Policy was clear in his belief that the 49ers’ first priority is a new stadium, but he was also clear that even if the San Francisco deal is not quite as good, the team should stay in San Francisco. In fact, Policy indicated that “if the NFL had its druthers, the 49ers would stay in San Francisco,” as Mercury News reporter Mike Swift noted in his article about the discussion – “49ers Decision a Year Away.”

Cohen answered many of the objections that I have heard about the site and outlined the plans for transportation improvements in the area.

Ann Killion also expressed strong support for the team staying in San Francisco, and she knocked down many of the myths promoted by stadium supporters in Santa Clara.

While Patricia Mahan talked about an “entertainment district” in Santa Clara, Killion replied that football stadiums are not like other types of professional sports facilities. She said that with a football stadium, 70,000 people come in 10 times a year to see the game, and then they turn around and leave. They don’t stick around and spend money.

She also noted that public subsidies for stadiums are a very hard sell in this area because we have the examples both of what can happen when public subsidy goes wrong (see Raiders, Oakland) and of how stadiums can be built without public subsidies (see Giants, San Francisco.)

Mayor Mahan started reading a list of cities smaller than Santa Clara that host NFL football teams, but the moderator interrupted to say that it wasn’t about the size of the city, it was about the money. [As we’ve discussed here before – "A tale of two cities."]

I would highly recommend tuning in for the broadcast of the discussion. It will be aired this Thursday, September 20, on 1590AM. Here are the full details:

Thursday, Sept. 20, 2007
KLIV-AM 1590 kHz
7:00 PM and 10:00 PM

If you miss the broadcast, you may be able to listen to it or purchase a recording of it at the Commonwealth Club website. It’s not yet available there, but I will update this post with a link as soon as it’s available.

If you want to learn more about the stadium issue, this discussion provides an excellent analysis of the situation and the state of the current proposals.

Three million Benjamins

Photographer Chris Jordan has a new series of works entitled "Running the Numbers: An American Self-Portrait."

He created this portrait of Benjamin Franklin using images of 125,000 $100 bills — $12,500,000 representing "the amount our government spends every hour on the war in Iraq."

To depict the $222,000,000 subsidy that the San Francisco 49ers have requested from the City of Santa Clara to build a football stadium, we'd need about 18 of these expensive portraits. [And if you include the value of the land the City has been asked to donate — for a grand total of about $287,000,000 in subsidy— we'd need 23.]

Either way, that's a lot of Benjamins.

The 700 Pound Gorilla

Funny you should mention Great America, and their parent company Cedar Fair.

Back in January, the Santa Clara Mayor and City Council formally adopted a set of principles for evaluating the 49ers stadium proposal. These included a requirement that Cedar Fair agree in writing to not interfere with the stadium feasibility study, and that this agreement was required prior to pursuing discussions with the 49ers.

Here it is September, with no agreement in sight. The Mayor is saying that Cedar Fair's opposition is "the most substantive" problem delaying the feasibility study. However, "We haven't come up against one obstacle, or one factor, that violates our principles for going forward," Mahan said. (SJMN, Sept 4 2007)

Hmm... I think we have a touch of selective amnesia going on here.